After reaching record highs in 2022, farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2024 but at a slower rate than it fell in 2023. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $182.0 billion in calendar year 2022 in nominal dollars. After decreasing by $35.6 billion (19.5 percent) from 2022 to $146.5 billion in 2023, net farm income in 2024 is forecast to decrease $6.5 billion (4.4 percent) to $140.0 billion. Net cash farm income reached $210.1 billion in 2022. After decreasing by $44.0 billion (20.9 percent) from 2022 to $166.1 billion in 2023, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $12.0 billion (7.2 percent) to $154.1 billion in 2024.
In inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) from 2023 to 2024, and net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) compared with the previous year. If realized, both measures in 2024 would remain above their 2004–23 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars).
See a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2017–2024F, or see all data tables on farm income and wealth statistics.
Note: In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are generally discussed in nominal dollars, although cases are noted where the change is reversed using inflation-adjusted dollars.
Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $23.3 billion (4.3 percent) from 2023 to $516.5 billion in 2024. Crop cash receipts are projected to decline $34.7 billion (12.2 percent) during the year, while animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to increase by $11.4 billion (4.5 percent).
Crop cash receipts are forecast at $249.0 billion in 2024, a decrease of $27.7 billion (10.0 percent) from 2023 in nominal terms. Combined receipts for corn and soybeans are forecast to fall $24.6 billion, but vegetable and melon receipts are expected to increase.
Corn receipts are expected to fall by $16.0 billion (20.0 percent), as lower forecasted prices should outweigh higher quantities sold in 2024. Lower prices in 2024 should also outweigh growth in quantities sold for soybean receipts, which are forecast to decrease by $8.6 billion (14.6 percent). Falling prices and quantities sold are expected to pull cotton receipts $1.7 billion (23.6 percent) lower in 2024. Wheat receipts are forecast to decrease $1.6 billion (12.3 percent), as lower prices will outweigh higher quantities sold. Receipts for hay are also expected to fall by $0.9 billion (8.9 percent).
Vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to increase $2.5 billion (9.8 percent) in 2024 while receipts for fruits and nuts are expected to fall by $0.5 billion (1.9 percent) during the year. Rice receipts are projected to grow by $0.3 billion (7.2 percent), while receipts for barley are forecast to decline $0.1 billion (13.0 percent). Receipts for sugarcane and sugarbeets are forecast to decline $0.7 billion (30.5 percent) and $1.0 billion (31.9 percent) respectively in 2024. Sorghum receipts are also projected to fall $0.2 billion (12.7 percent).
See data on value of crop production (in the value added table) and crop cash receipts.
Total animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to increase $17.8 billion (7.1 percent in nominal terms) from 2023 to $267.4 billion in 2024. Chicken egg receipts are forecast to see the largest percentage increase among animal/animal product commodities.
Milk receipts are expected to increase $4.3 billion (9.4 percent) in 2024, mainly due to higher prices. Cash receipts from cattle and calves are expected to increase $6.6 billion (6.5 percent), also due to higher prices. Projected growth in quantities sold should lead to an increase of $0.7 billion (2.7 percent) in hog receipts during the year.
Cash receipts for chicken eggs are expected to increase $6.9 billion (38.7 percent) in 2024, due to higher prices. Rising prices and quantities sold are expected to drive broiler receipts $1.8 billion (4.2 percent) during the year. However, lower prices and quantities sold are forecast for turkeys in 2024, resulting in a drop of $2.7 billion (41.5 percent) in receipts for that commodity.
To better understand the factors underlying the forecast change in annual receipts from 2023 to 2024, the change was decomposed into two separate effects: a "price effect" projecting the change in cash receipts associated with holding the quantity sold constant at 2023 levels and allowing prices to change to forecast 2024 levels; and a "quantity effect" holding prices constant from 2023 and quantities changing to forecast 2024 levels. In 2024, falling prices are projected to have negative effects on cash receipts, while rising quantities sold should have positive effects. Overall, cash receipts are forecast to decrease $9.8 billion in 2024, with an estimated negative price effect of $19.1 billion, and a projected positive quantity effect of $7.9 billion. In addition, a net increase of $1.3 billion in cash receipts is from forecasts for commodities for which price and quantity effects cannot be separately determined. Quantity effects on cash receipts are forecast to be positive for crops and animals/animal products. Price effects are forecast to be negative overall for crop cash receipts but are expected to be positive for animal/animal product receipts.
Direct Government farm program payments are those made by the Federal Government directly to farmers and ranchers with no intermediaries. Typically, most direct payments to farmers and ranchers are administered by the USDA using the Farm Bill or related authorities. Direct payments can also come from supplemental programs authorized by the U.S. Congress. Government payments do not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) indemnity payments (listed as a separate component of farm income) and USDA loans (listed as a liability in the farm sector’s balance sheet). Direct Government farm program payments are forecast at $10.4 billion for 2024, a decrease of 15.1 percent ($1.8 billion) from 2023 to 2024. This overall decrease reflects anticipated lower payments from the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program and lower payments from supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance, particularly from the Emergency Relief Program (ERP).
Farm sector production expenses, including expenses associated with operator dwellings, are forecast at $457.5 billion in 2024. The expenses are forecast to decrease by $4.4 billion (1.0 percent), compared with their 2023 level. When adjusted for inflation, production expenses are forecast to decrease by 3.4 percent from 2023 to 2024.
Spending on feed, labor, and livestock/poultry purchases are expected to represent three of the largest categories of spending in 2024. Feed purchases, the largest single expense category, are forecast at $70.2 billion in 2024, declining by $9.8 billion (12.3 percent) from 2023 level. However, labor expenses (including both cash labor expenses and noncash employee compensation) are forecast to rise by $3.4 billion (6.9 percent) to $52.2 billion in 2024, compared with 2023. Livestock and poultry purchases are projected to grow by $5.2 billion (12.0 percent) to $48.1 billion in 2024.
Several other expense categories are forecast to notably change in 2024, compared with their 2023 levels:
